Risk Assessments in Forensic Psychology: Predicting Future Behavior

One of the most important tasks of a forensic psychologist is conducting risk assessments to estimate the likelihood that an individual may engage in harmful or criminal behavior in the future. These assessments are used in a variety of settings, such as parole hearings, sentencing, civil commitment, and sex offender evaluations.

Risk assessments typically evaluate both static factors (unchangeable, like criminal history) and dynamic factors (changeable, like substance use or mental health symptoms). Commonly used tools include the HCR-20 for violence risk and the Static-99R for sexual offense risk. These tools are evidence-based and help guide clinical judgment.

Importantly, no risk assessment can predict behavior with 100% certainty. They are best used as tools to inform decisions, not to determine them. Ethical considerations, such as avoiding bias and ensuring cultural competence, are also critical.

For more information, see resources from the Council of State Governments Justice Center or the International Association for Forensic Mental Health Services.

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